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Geopolitics & Risk: Turning Headline Risk into UHNW Family Strategy
Edward Marshall, Presage Global in conversation with Ted Gistaro, a Senior US Intelligence Community leader and Michael McGowan, Managing Director and shareholder on the Investment Strategy team at Pathstone.
As the Iran conflict continues to disrupt global energy markets, supply chains, and geopolitical stability, its ripple effects are extending far beyond the Middle East—reshaping inflation, investment risk, and security dynamics worldwide.
Recent developments highlight the scale and complexity of the moment. Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for roughly 20% of global oil flows—have driven volatility in energy prices, increased inflationary pressure, and elevated recession risk if instability persists. At the same time, a structural shift is underway: the United Arab Emirates’ decision to step away from OPEC signals a potential fragmentation of coordinated energy policy, introducing new uncertainty around supply discipline, pricing power, and long-term geopolitical alignment.
Together, these forces are not only disrupting near-term markets—they are reshaping the global energy order, capital flows, and strategic alliances in ways that will have lasting implications for inflation, interest rates, and economic growth. Concurrently, global growth forecasts have been downgraded, with economists warning of prolonged economic scarring even in a de-escalation scenario.
For UHNW families, this is not simply a macroeconomic story—it is a multi-dimensional risk event that cuts across every layer of wealth and decision-making:
• Portfolio construction and asset allocation, including the role of AI-driven valuations and the broader economic implications of artificial intelligence
• Physical and cyber security exposure, amid rising geopolitical tension and asymmetric threats
• Mobility, residency, and jurisdictional risk, as geopolitical alignment increasingly influences regulatory and sovereign stability
• Family governance and decision-making under uncertainty, particularly across multi-generational structures with differing risk perspectives
PANELISTS
This roundtable brings together leading experts to move beyond headlines and into actionable insight:
- Edward ‘Ted’ Gistaro, Senior US Intelligence Community leader with over 35 years of experience leading multidisciplinary enterprise, analytic, and operational teams. Ted has extensive experience developing and driving teams to success in Washington and the Field to increase insight of and mitigate against Transnational and Hard Target threats.
- Michael McGowan, bringing a capital markets and portfolio strategy lens from Pathstone, with deep experience advising UHNW families on navigating complex market environments
• Edward Marshall, offering a geopolitical risk and security perspective from Presage Global, focused on how global instability translates into real-world risk for families and institutions
Together, they will unpack what is actually happening beneath the surface—and how UHNW families and their advisors can recalibrate risk frameworks, reposition capital, and strengthen resilience in an increasingly fragmented and unpredictable global landscape.